Jobs AI will reduce, according to BLS: the list at 16

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics names specific jobs where it expects AI to change staffing. Here is the list, what it does and doesn't say, and what to do with it before you've picked a path.

The jobs the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) expects AI to reduce are mostly office and administrative roles, such as customer service representatives, data entry keyers, receptionists and bookkeeping clerks.^[2] BLS also names a short list of jobs where it expects AI to raise demand.^[2] Neither list is a verdict on you. Here's who's on them, what they really say, and what you can do about it at 16.

Is this the same as the BLS "AI exposure categories"?

No. The exposure categories sort 831 occupations into four relative tiers, and BLS is blunt about what that means: "an exposure category is not a forecast of employment growth or decline."^[1] The list here comes from a different table. In Table 1.12, BLS analysts walk through job by job and industry by industry why they expect a job's share of an industry's staffing to rise or fall between 2025 and 2035.^[2] Both landed together with the 2025–35 projections on August 27, 2026.^[1][3]

Which jobs does BLS expect AI to reduce?

Among the entries that mention AI, these are the ones where BLS expects the occupation's share to fall:^[2]

The office group shows up in the headline numbers too. BLS projects office and administrative support to fall 4.0%, a loss of 752,100 jobs. That's the largest drop of any major group.^[3]

Which jobs does BLS expect AI to make more common?

Four entries go the other way: computer and information research scientists, because of demand for AI development; training and development specialists, because AI drives continuous training; information security analysts; and medical records specialists. For those last two, BLS says AI-related efficiency only partly offsets the rise.^[2] Automation more broadly also lifts the share of industrial machinery mechanics and millwrights, the people who keep the equipment running.^[2]

Zoom out and the picture is growth. BLS projects employment overall to rise 3.5%, from 170.3 million to 176.2 million jobs. Nurse practitioners (+41.0%) and data scientists (+34.6%) lead the detailed occupations.^[3]

What does this mean for you at 16?

Start with what the list doesn't say. A falling share of staffing isn't the same as a job disappearing. BLS calls the uncertainty about AI's effects "very high," and it adjusts for new technology conservatively.^[4] Its exposure data reflect only the AI abilities known by mid-2023.^[1] Read the list as a map of where BLS is watching for change, not a set of closed doors.

Next, look at the interest type behind a job. O*NET gives each one a RIASEC code. Here are a few of the jobs above:

Seven jobs don't make a rule, and we're not claiming one. The point is smaller. No single interest type sits entirely on the safe side or the risky side. Artistic jobs and routine-office jobs are both on the shrinking list. Investigative, social and hands-on jobs are on the other. Whatever field you pick, AI will change some of the tasks. What you enjoy doing is still the steadiest thing you have to go on at 16.

Last, timing. These projections end in 2035, when you'll be about 25. BLS will publish the 2026–36 version in 2027, and the picture will move again.^[1] Check back then. Don't choose a path now because of one table.

Questions to take to a parent or counsellor

• Which tasks in this job could software do, and which depend on judging a person or a situation?
• If the job changed shape, which of the interests behind it would still apply elsewhere?
• What could I try this year, a class, a club or a weekend project, to see whether I actually like the work?

One next step

If you haven't yet, take the free CAT test: 23 questions, about 10 minutes, built on the RIASEC model. It gives you a starting code to compare against lists like this one. It's guidance, not a definitive answer. Take the test, then read what RIASEC is or see the career test for high school students.

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